| 14 August 2011
We are obviously in another round of conference expansion. We are looking at important people like Texas Governor Rick Perry, a Texas A&M alum and yell leader, admitting that it is happening. By the time you read this A&M could be a member of the SEC. It is happening that quickly. In fact, ESPN is reporting that a high ranking A&M official to saying A&M to the SEC is pending approval of the SEC officials.
This all goes back the recently finalized deal to create the LHN, the Texas Longhorns football network. Actually it goes back further but the catalyst for the renewed conference realignment negotiations is the Texas Longhorns network.
Texas and Texas A&M seemed to be attached at the hip last time around. Texas is acting very independently this time. It appears A&M realizes it has to look out for itself. If A&M leaves, and it looks like it is going to happen, Texas will do what is expected and bolt the conference. Where, remains the only question. It seems there is more chatter that the Longhorns will end up in the Big Ten this time around than there was the last time. The fact is, Texas is far and away the most attractive potential "free agent" out there. Notre Dame might think they are but that is only in the minds of Notre Dame people. Notre Dame is 99-73 since Lou Holtz left in
1996, and has won more than 9 games twice since 1993. Notre Dame is about tradition. Texas has something much more tangible in a state with a massive population, a massive recruiting base, plus an awfully impressive tradition in their own right. Notre Dame is still extremely attractive, sporting the most legendary tradition in college football. The Big Ten would surely look to add at least two teams. The most obvious school in addition to Texas would be Notre Dame. I only hope Notre Dame realizes that there is about to be massive change in college football. With their best years fading quickly into history they need to look to the future and that means joining a conference as a football team.
Notre Dame in the Big Ten gains immediate and massive impact. Notre Dame is a midwest school. It is in a midwest state. Two other schools in the state are Big Ten schools. The natural rivalries that will present themselves create buzz every weekend. Notre Dame needs to recruit beyond its borders. It needs television exposure. It has its own deal with NBC? And? I want everyone who watched Notre Dame play S. Florida, Air Force, Navy, Wake Forest, Maryland and Boston College games to send me an e-mail. I won't bother to clean out my mailbox. I am quite confident that the response will not overwhelm my mailbox. How much exposure does Notre Dame get by swapping those games out for Ohio State, Texas, Nebraska, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa and either Northwestern or Illinois? When does Notre Dame realize they cannot do it alone? I think this is their last shot. I think they take it.
I know fans do not want to hear Missouri. As a friend recently reminded me, AAU membership means huge money in the area of research. This is not about football. It is about money. I think that gets Missouri in.
The fourth team is anyones guess. The number of schools on the board is larger than it was last time. I think we are about to see the conferences as we know them change dramatically.
There is much chatter about Florida State going to the SEC. That was always one that surprised me. That Florida State ended up in the ACC, I mean. I thought Florida State a natural SEC school. I am surprised Miami is not being talked about to the SEC. Maybe the SEC is only looking at adding two teams. It is already a 12 team league. Texas A&M fits naturally in the west. Likewise with Florida State in the east. ESPN is reporting Clemson and Missouri to the SEC in addition to A&M and Florida State. Clemson and Missouri are both denying it, with Missouri the most outspoken.
Look at the schools that would become free agents with the demise of the Big 12 and the ACC. Oklahoma is the one that leaps out and smacks you upside the head immediately. The thing is, other than the football tradition, what do they bring to the table? It does not bring large local markets to the television package. The recruiting base is small. Because there is great college football in the state does not mean the high school football is great. The great SI.com story on BCS recruits by state for the years 2004-2008 shows Missouri with more recruits and New York, yes, I said New York, producing just five less recruits. Oklahoma is not an AAU school so they cannot make it up with research money. The football fan in me wants Oklahoma badly. The realist in me says this is about money and Oklahoma comes up short.
If the ACC does come apart I would love to add Virginia. We have always looked at Virginia as a southern school but Virginia Beach is the far corner of the state. It is 585 miles from Columbus to Virginia Beach. It is 785 miles from Columbus to Minneapolis. It is 504 miles from Columbus to Madison, Wisconsin. Virginia is called the "Cradle of Presidents." It is also an AAU member, unlike football first school Virginia Tech. Virginia was top ten on the SI.com list for players sent to BCS schools during the 2004-2008 period. I think the regional differences create a problem so I doubt this happens though I would love to see it.
The best news about this for me is we get closer to a playoff, actually play it out on the field for the national championship. I see three Big conferences, the Big Ten, SEC and Pac-10 (12), and who knows what else. There was a time when there were quite a few more independents than there are today. With bigger conferences, it means more big games during the regular season. Those big games end up being like playoff games. The winners of the conferences would be battle hardened and tested squads. With that in mind it drops the number of teams that would be involved in a playoff. Four entities would give a nice square number for the NCAA to draw from, the three conferences and an at large, which allows Boise State and others a shot at the national championship.
A 16-team playoff takes 4 weekends. An 8-team playoff means 3 weekends. The one idea that has been kicked around the most is the "plus one" where two teams from the bowl games play it out the next weekend. Four teams would mean 2 weekends. I think it is going to be easier to sway dissenters to vote for 2 weekends than for 3 or 4. Win your conference, play for the national championship. That is something I could settle for.
I would be all for a 16-team or at least an 8-team playoff. I see no reason to not take the month of December to have a playoff. Other levels of college football do it. I may never see it but I think we are on the brink of seeing some kind of college football playoff.
What is going to happen to some of these programs nobody is talking about? This thing is about money so football is driving it. There are still quite a few dollars to be wrung out of football. Basketball has reached its peak. I read a story right before March Madness last year, or maybe it was the year before, that CBS was trying to get out of its long term commitment to the NCAA tournament. What happens to all those great basketball schools? Kansas is highly likely to end up without a conference out of this but what enters my mind is, what if Florida State bolts, and Clemson too according to ESPN? That leaves the ACC with no football identity to speak of, and North Carolina and Duke wondering what their next step is. The ACC is a basketball conference.
If Notre Dame does come to its senses and joins the Big Ten, that is going to create some instability in another basketball first conference, the Big East. The ACC has the legendary programs but the Big East was created as a basketball conference. The Big East added football later. There are still schools that do not play football in the conference. Think about North Carolina, Duke, UConn, Syracuse and Georgetown in the same conference. You have Maryland, Villanova, Pitt, Louisville, Two-time national champions in Louisville, Cincinnati and North Carolina State as schools to pick from to round out the conference. The great thing about it is it remains a regional conference. What if that does not matter?
Kansas in the conference, maybe even dragging a respectable Kansas State program along, creates a super basketball conference. One that can put such highly attractive games on television so often in the regular season that the other conferences would be fighting over the market that is left. Don't say that is absurd. Conference USA stretches from East Carolina to west Texas (UTEP). Every school in the Big Ten is at least a 1,000 miles from Austin, Texas. Basketball schools are of very little consequence in a discussion about football. They need to go have a conversation about basketball. A very serious discussion.
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