| 07 August 2011
My last blog on 2013 players started a conversation on Bucknuts which morphed into a discussion about where the talent was. Long time Bucknuts staffer, Kirk, found a great link, a definitive link, on which states were producing the most talent.
The United States is going through some major changes. The one that impacts college football fans the most is the population shift. The numbers in this SI.com story, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/ncaa/01/21/bcsrecruits.state/index.html, bring home the inherent advantages the SEC has.
A friend has long maintained that the lone Big Ten national championship of the BCS era is all that can be expected with the population shift we are seeing in this country. There just aren't enough elite prospects in this part of the country to compete. He points to my often made point that recruiting is local as further proof that Ohio States championship under Jim Tressel was really against the odds.
Something I think it crucial in the numbers in that report is that five of the nine Big Ten states are producing less than 86 players each, while seven of the nine SEC states are producing at least 149 players. Four Big Ten states are producing less than 66 players each in that 2004-2008 time period. Only two SEC states produced less than 100 players in the same time period. Notice the per capita numbers in the report. Those are even more telling as the SEC can claim six of the top eight spots, including the top four spots. I have always maintained that despite the overall population numbers of California and Texas over Florida, that Florida would be the one state I would focus my recruiting on. Florida is both number one in BCS recruits over that 2004-2008 time period, and number one overall per capita.
Another advantage for the SEC is the state of North Carolina smack dab in the middle of SEC country. North Carolina is number nine for the number of players sent to BCS schools in that 2004-2008 time period. The instate football programs are laughable, in the case of Duke, and almost laughable with North Carolina. North Carolina State is no football power by any means. North Carolina is a basketball state, period. The top football players are going to go elsewhere. Recruiting is local. The closest football first schools around those North Carolina players are SEC schools.
Ten states produced more than 200 BCS players in that 2004-2008 time period. Three were SEC states. North Carolina is in there too. For all intents and purposes you can put it in the SEC column. There are two Big Ten states in the top ten, Ohio State and Pennsylvania. There are two other states in that top ten that are a surprise, and are hugely important to the Big Ten.
I was not very surprised at New Jersey in that top ten. I have been talking about New Jersey and how the Buckeyes have pushed into that state, one that could be called a recruiting hot bed, and snatched some nice players out of there going back to the Cooper era. Malcolm Jenkins, Jason Winrow and David Patterson are the names most fans will be familiar with but they are certainly not the only New jersey players who have sported the colors. There is no home state big time football school in New Jersey. Top players are used to leaving the state to play big time football. Anthony Davis is the only big time national player out of the state recently who has decided to stay home to play his college football. Ohio State and Penn State are the closet football powers to those fertile New Jersey recruiting grounds.
I was very surprised, pleasantly surprised under the currently circumstances, at another top ten state.
I knew that a player or two came out of Virginia but I was not ready to see Virginia in the top ten. The Buckeyes recent success there could be a gold mine. The same can be said of Virginia when it comes to closest football powers. Virginia is a basketball school. Virginia Tech is definitely in the fight for players in the state of Virginia, and so is Tennessee, but both Columbus, Ohio and State College, PA are just as close as Knoxville and with even greater prestige.
Ohio State has always been in Florida and has done well in that most important state. Pennsylvania is number six on the list and the Buckeyes are pulling top talent out of there consistently these days. I would like to see more focus on the state of Texas. The commitment of time must be considered and recruiting is very much a local thing. Look at the rosters of the Florida schools, the Texas schools, the California schools, any football program where the state has a great high school football tradition. You will find the colleges rosters overwhelmingly from the state and the region. The state of Ohio shows signs that it will always produce plenty of talent but the region is lacking. Being able to go into a state producing as many big school football players as New Jersey and Virginia could be important to the Buckeyes chances of putting another crystal football in the Woody Hayes Athletic Center trophy case.
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